Suchergebnisse

What explains the legislative production of Brazilian ministries? The article explores the relationship between ministerial instability and the performance of ministries measured by the number of legislative proposals they produced between 1999 and 2014. Using an exponential average model with endogenous regressors, we argue that the change of ministers negatively affects the entities' legislative production. The ideological distance between the minister's and president's parties and the prior legislative expertise of the ministers, have a pronounced impact on the level of legislative production on the government's political agenda. The results corroborate the perception of the negative effect of ministerial instability on the efficiency of the conception and formulation of public policies and contribute to the understanding of legislative production and bureaucratic performance of Brazilian presidentialism. ; ¿Qué explica la producción legislativa de los ministerios federales en Brasil? El artículo explora la relación entre la inestabilidad ministerial y el desempeño de los ministerios medido por el número de propuestas legislativas producidas entre 1999 y 2014. Utilizando un modelo de promedio exponencial con regresores endógenos, argumentamos que el cambio de ministros afecta negativamente la capacidad de producción legislativa de los ministerios. Aun así, la distancia ideológica entre los partidos del ministro y del presidente, así como la experiencia legislativa previa de los ministros, tienen un impacto más pronunciado en el nivel de producción de propuestas legislativas en la agenda política del gobierno. Los resultados corroboran la percepción del efecto negativo de la inestabilidad ministerial sobre la eficiencia de la concepción y formulación de políticas públicas, además de contribuir a la comprensión de la producción legislativa y desempeño burocrático del presidencialismo brasileño. ; O que explica a produção legislativa dos ministérios federais no Brasil? O artigo explora a relação entre a instabilidade ministerial e o desempenho dos ministérios mensurado pela quantidade de propostas legislativas produzidas entre 1999 e 2014. Por meio de um modelo de média exponencial com regressores endógenos, argumentamos que a troca de ministros e ministras afeta negativamente a capacidade de produção legislativa das pastas. Ainda assim, o distanciamento ideológico entre os partidos do ministro e o presidente, bem como a expertise legislativa prévia dos ministros, tem impacto mais pronunciado no nível de produção de propostas legislativas dentro da agenda política do governo. Os resultados corroboram a percepção do efeito negativo da instabilidade ministerial na eficiência da concepção e da formulação de políticas públicas, contribuindo para o entendimento da produção legislativa e do desempenho burocrático do presidencialismo brasileiro.

Resumo Pesquisas prévias argumentaram a mudança no posicionamento ideológico do Partido dos Trabalhadores nas últimas décadas, especialmente quando passou a assumir o governo federal. Os autores estendem essa agenda de pesquisa analisando os discursos de legisladores petistas que estiveram presentes no período em que o partido era oposição e governo em temáticas semelhantes nos mesmos períodos. Por meio do método wordscores, demonstramos a migração ideológica do PT para a direita, fortalecendo a evidência empírica do fenômeno. A análise do conteúdo substantivo dos discursos revelou a direção da mudança em assuntos como as reformas da previdência e trabalhista, educação e relações exteriores.

The distribution of ministerial portfolios in the formation of government coalitions in Brazilian presidentialism is a crucial factor in determining the governability of the political system. Objective measurement of the relevance of ministries to political parties offers a means of shedding light on the relations between the executive and legislative branches of Brazil's government. This research note aims to improve the empirical measurement of the relevance of Federal ministries in negotiations between presidents and political parties by including a fundamental theoretical aspect to political behavior: the media exposure of the various ministries. Given the importance of the media in shaping the political agenda and public opinion, we have expanded the theoretical conceptualization of the means to effect such measurements by adding a construct of ministerial relevance that is exogenous to the government apparatus. We have made empirical use of concepts such as the relative prestige of the various ministries and the degree of public exposure to them by quantifying the frequency of their appearances on the front pages of the three Brazilian newspapers with the largest readerships. Our results demonstrate the empirical utility and theoretical complementarity of the insertion of a variable relating to media exposure into Batista's ministerial relevance (2017).

In this article, we provide a framework to analyze the foreign policy overstretch of middle powers, that is, their recent tendency to expand foreign policy goals and ambitions beyond their capabilities. We propose that overstretch results from the interaction of permissive international environments and the collusion of domestic actors to produce foreign policy myths. These myths, in turn, justify unsustainable swelling of foreign policy expenditures until they are shattered. After laying out our theory, we test it against the case of twenty-first-century Brazil. First, we document how interest groups logrolled to foster and capitalize on a "myth of multipolarity," which, once entrenched in elite discourse and public opinion, resulted in a tangible overgrowth of foreign policy. Second, we show the extent of overstretch across four indicators—number of embassies, participation in peacekeeping operations, membership in international organizations, and aid projects overseas—using the synthetic control method to compare Brazil with a plausible counterfactual.